Sports Update Monday: FSU vs Miami, Three Reasons Why Each Team Wins
There isn’t the same hype as a season ago, but once again Miami provides what is likely the last test for Florida State before the postseason. In 2013, Miami was a 21-point underdog and Florida State covered that spread, but Las Vegas projects this one to be much closer. This season’s revival of this once great rivalry brings together a Florida State team that enjoys being on the ropes and a Miami team playing its best football of the season.
For FSU:
1. The FSU rush defense shores up when it matters: The Florida State defense has issues stopping the run that are not going to be solved this season. The Seminoles are thin at defensive tackle and the linebackers have struggled at times. However, the run defense seems to find its footing in the second half of games. In the three games Florida State trailed in the fourth quarter, the run defense was porous in the first half. Common sense suggests the rush defense would be worse in the second half after being run over in the first, but the defense has been a much better unit in the second half.
2. Miami might not be that good after all: The Hurricanes are certainly trending upward with freshman quarterback Brad Kaaya improving by the week. The offense is dynamic with Kaaya’s passing complementing the Canes multiple offensive weapons. The defense is ranked No. 11 nationally and is much better than it was last season. All that said, the Hurricanes’ wins are not against great competition. Their win over Duke is their biggest win, but even the Blue Devils are often labeled as overrated. Miami’s three-game winning streak has come against Cincinnati, North Carolina and Virginia Tech. Miami has lost its three toughest games by a combined 39 points.
3. FSU still has Jameis Winston as its quarterback: Above all, Florida State has the reigning Heisman Trophy winner in Winston, who has yet to lose a game in which he has started. Winston has won all 22 starts, and while the Seminoles are not nearly as dominant as a season ago, Winston is carrying FSU to wins, especially in the second half of games. Winston’s numbers are drastically better in the second half, which makes the Seminoles such a tough team to beat.
For Miami:
1. Duke Johnson: The junior has been on absolute tear lately, eclipsing the 100-yard mark in each of his last five games. Johnson’s rushing average during this stretch? That would be 168.6 yards per game. Taken one step further, his rushing average over the last three games is 196 yards per game. Florida State has been OK stopping the run, ranking 35th nationally. Johnson is seventh nationally in rushing yards (1,213) and ninth nationally in yards per rush (7.68), and Miami would be wise to ride him as long as it can Saturday night at Sun Life Stadium.
2. The defense is improving: Yes, the Hurricanes had trouble stopping the run in their three losses this season — at Louisville, at Nebraska and at Georgia Tech. But who, exactly, has done a good job of stopping two of those teams? (The Cornhuskers are 10th nationally in rushing yards; the Yellow Jackets second.) As our residential stats guru David Hale noted two weeks ago, Miami has actually been fairly stout against its opposition, compared to other teams its opposition has faced. FSU, meanwhile, has not been blowing anybody off the ball this year, ranking 101st nationally in rushing yards pre game (129.89).
3. Miami is coming off a bye week: Don’t think this matters? Tell that to Jimbo Fisher, who said after the Noles’ 34-20 win Saturday over Virginia that the Canes’ bye definitely makes a difference: “Your body, your rest, your preparation, an extra whole week of watching film. You can sit and study habits, tendencies. You get twice the practice time on one team.” Miami is a confident, rested group that has played well in four of its last five games — with Georgia Tech being the outlier, as it so often is for everyone.